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          鸦片战争惨败的真正原因:林则徐瞒报军情
          趣历史 2016-11-02 17:00:45

            鸦片战争中英之间第一场战争。鸦片战争起因是英国在广东倾销鸦片,严重扰乱了广东社会。英国借此发动了鸦片战争,目的为打开中国市场,倾销商品。战争初期清军英勇作战,但后来还是以惨败结束。清朝被迫签订《南京条约》,割地赔款,丧权辱国,但此时大清朝其实还是愚昧麻木的,不以为然,还沉浸天朝大国的迷梦之中。

            很多人认为战争失败是武器装备和体制的问题,其实将军瞒报军情也是重要原因。

            这场战争的过程我们都很清楚,英军全程都是在压着清军打。但是在道光皇帝接到的奏折里,战争初期却全是清军大获全胜的喜报。

            比如鸦片战争开始前的两次武装冲突里,第一次冲突,英军自己的记录是只有几个人受伤。林则徐的奏折里则说,击沉英军一艘船,击毙英军17人以上。第二次冲突英军的记录是无人伤亡。林则徐的奏折说:附近渔船捞到了敌人的帽子21顶,经过辨认,其中有两顶是敌人军官所戴,其余各种外国人的物件“不可以数计”。这样的描述,让我们很难相信林则徐的奏折里没有夸大战果的意思。

            其实这还算是客观的,后面其他人的奏折更没法看了。如虎门之战里,清军250人战死,100多人受伤,1000多人被俘,英军仅仅5人受了轻伤。这完全是一面倒的失败,但是清方的奏折里赫然写着“共计剿杀夷逆汉奸六百余名”。第二次定海保卫战,英军战死2人,受伤27人,清方的记录里则写着“剿杀逆夷一千数百名”。

            下级官员隐瞒事实欺骗上级领导,导致报告和实情差异巨大,看起来似乎觉得不可思议,但这的确是中国古代社会难以克服的顽疾之一。

            在中国古代社会,有一些问题始终难以解决,比较重要的主要有:地方豪强兼并土地、截留税款、瞒报上税人口。这些问题历代朝廷都没有办法真正搞定,并且越到王朝末期就越发严重。

            也许你会想,这些问题为什么不能解决?听起来并不是多么难办的事情嘛,皇帝下个命令不就行了吗?比如哪个土豪占的土地太多了,皇帝让他把土地分出来,他敢不从吗?或者收取他高额惩罚性税赋可不可以?至于税款截留、隐瞒人口的问题,皇帝可以下令整顿税吏,做大规模的清查人口嘛。

            实际上,这些办法都有一定的效果,中国历史上稍微精明一点的皇帝都干过这些事。但除了开国初期外,其余的皇帝全都失败了。远的不说,就说清朝的雍正、乾隆,他们这样在中国历史上处于皇权巅峰时期的皇帝,也最终没办成这事。

            为什么呢?

            如果简单笼统的给个答案,那就是:在独裁社会中,朝廷缺少足够的监督力量。

            皇帝固然可以设计各种监督机制,比如在各地设置监督官员,或像唐朝那样派宦官当监军,又或像明朝那样派遣特务,甚至像清朝那样采用秘密奏折制度。但这些制度都有一个相同的缺点:负责监督的人数太少。只要人数少,被监督者就总有办法买通监督者,共同欺上瞒下。

            就拿清末来说,清末虽然有秘密奏折制度,但是到了乾隆后期,官场贪腐成风,所有上奏折的人都贪,大家谁能检举谁?就算有个别人想冒头检举,皇帝接到举报后又不能轻信,还要派钦差到地方上调查取证,只要地方上的贪官互相遮掩,甚至是买通钦差,那皇帝还是没有什么办法。

            再比如土地兼并这事,皇帝们都知道土地兼并不好,可他们手下大臣都是大地主,大家的财产都来自于土地兼并、瞒报赋税。那大臣们为什么要自己断自己的财路?

            所以皇帝们遇到的情况是这样的:当皇帝决定下大力气整治土地兼并和瞒报赋税时,朝堂上的朝廷大员们纷纷叫好,山呼万岁皇帝英明。而当政令下到地方,地方官员们立刻紧锣密鼓的工作,并隔三差五上报工作成果,详细介绍我们今天做了多少工作,检查了多少土地。事情眼看进行的十分顺利。

            但当调查结果出来后,看看具体清查的案件,你就会明白那些被处罚的对象都是一些没势力后台的小地主。真正的大地主们在文件上全都是清清白白的。光看产权文件,他们家里也就一间院子三亩地,完全符合朝廷规定。

            这时候假设你是皇帝,还能怎么办呢?总不能亲自走遍全国几千个县里,挨个踹开每个地主家的院子,看看他们家到底有多大不成?

            这个中国古代政府无法解决的问题,以后世的经验看来,解决瞒报最好的办法就是舆论监督。

            比如欧洲采取议会制以后,议会里的议员都是老百姓选出来的,可是老百姓怎么知道这个议员为人怎么样,自己该不该选呢?这就要靠报社了。

            在商业社会里,报社也要盈利,也要面临同行的激烈竞争。百姓们关心自己选的议员为人到底怎么样,报社记者为了能多赚钱,也就会跟“狗仔队”一样,拼命去找关于议员的各种新闻。

            满清的官员可以收买监督者一起骗皇帝的钱,议员却不可能去收买记者:全国那么多报社,那么多记者,你收买得过来吗?退一步说,就算有一个土豪超级有钱,把全国记者都收买了。但这就意味着记者这个行业太好干了,是个人就能拿一大笔钱,在经济利益的驱动下,结果就是会有大量的人继续涌进来当记者,大量的新报社成立。等于这个坏人是在拿自己的钱去壮大监督自己的力量,坏人是在用自己的左手打右手,无论他多有钱,最终一定还是控制不住记者曝光他,还是没法欺上瞒下。

            我们可以设想一下,如果鸦片战争整个反过来,变成清朝军队入侵英国,那么今天利物浦吃了败仗,俩小时后伦敦报纸就会有快讯,第二天大部分报纸上都能出现一线的详细采访。军官想要在奏折里胡说八道是根本不可能的。

            可惜,大兴文字狱的满清政府显然不可能允许民间自由开办报社,更不允许报社胡乱报道官员的坏话。农业社会也没有足够大的市场去刺激百姓开办报社,那官员们的欺上瞒下也就无可避免了。

            回过头来再看历史上的这场战争,会发现清方从上到下,至始至终都存在严重的瞒报问题,这导致了一个很可怕的局面:下级官员不肯把前线真实的情况告诉皇帝,不敢汇报英国人的真实要求,皇帝也就不可能对前线下达正确的命令。以至于在鸦片战争开打了很长一段时间,道光皇帝还不知道英国人为什么开战!

            他听信官员在奏折里的胡说八道,一直以为整个事件是“有一些蛮夷商人,因为林则徐禁烟没处理好,让他们觉得自己很冤屈,到处开着船在中国沿海找官员哭诉伸冤”。他以为这只是和外国商人发生的局部冲突,根本不知道,也不可能想到自己已经是在和一个国家开战了。

            当然,在清朝的秘密奏折制度之下,也偶尔有耿直的官员说实话,这些实话也可能会被皇帝看见,但还是那句话,假设把你换成皇帝,面对大多数人的意见,和偶尔发出的少数人的声音,你会听谁的?

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